While I’m often accused of being naïve, I’m not always wrong. While historical precedent suggests a pardon for Trump, I think it is too early to make that call.

Right now, Merrick Garland runs the Justice Department - not Bill Barr. During the Oklahoma City bombing trial of Timothy McVeigh and Nichols, Garland became famous for bringing investigators and prosecutors together, then keeping them focused on the crime and avoiding the possibility of an overturned conviction by building the case by the book.

Garland’s case was so strong, Timothy McVeigh was executed four years after his conviction and sentencing. Near as I can tell, if Merrick Garland puts you in prison, you will stay there.

The profiles of the people involved in the Jan 6 insurrection and those involved in the Oklahoma City bombing are too similar to ignore. while Garland’s influence is evident in the slow, methodical building of cases against Jan 6 insurrectionists, I think he is doubling down on Trump. Garland’s appointment of Jack Smith as special counsel overseeing the cases against Trump fits to a tee.

When it comes to Trump, I suspect Merrick Garland is trying to make it impossible for any president to pardon him without triggering a backlash too strong to overcome – without bloodshed and uncontrollable chaos.

Of course, I could be wrong - again.