Raffey
2 min readNov 8, 2024

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Math is my first stop. Bottom line: Trump’s base shrank. He had 815,634 fewer votes in 2024, than he did in 2020.

Near as I can tell, there was NO real change in demographics, party, views or anything else in this election.

In 2016, Trump had 2,833,024 fewer votes than Clinton.

In 2020, Trump had 7,059,547 fewer votes than Biden.

In 2024, Trump had 4,333,590 more votes than Harris.

In 2020, Covid drove people to the polls, and we got our first honest look at the political views of 156-million Americans - more than we had ever had before. .

2024 was a typical election and voter turnout dropped by more than 13-million people (below 2020's record turnout).

The pollsters are telling us that Trump increased his share of the Latino and Black vote. If that’s true, Trump lost a big percentage of the white vote. Pollsters are also telling us that Trump increased his share of men and women in the suburbs. If that’s true, Trump lost a lot of rural voters.

No matter how you slice it, Trump lost voters. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if Trump lost 2 white voters, for every “other” voter he gained.

I found CBS election night coverage on Hulu and watched until 2 a.m. Their map man was using his maps to compare Harris 2020 to Biden 2024 in the swing states. Some other pundit’s question got map man all flustered. I just about fell out of my chair when map man said, the votes were coming from population growth in the exurbs, not the suburbs.

BINGO. Trump was gaining exurban votes – and losing urban, suburban, and rural votes.

I mention the exurbs because they are super important. Has anyone here ever heard of the exurbs? If you have, can you tell us how to identify an exurb when we see one? Can you explain the difference between a suburb and an exurb? Do you have any ideas about the reasons, exurban voters might vote for Trump, instead of Harris?

Is anyone even interested in the answers?

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Raffey
Raffey

Written by Raffey

Rural America is my home. I serve diner, gourmet, seven course, and homecooked thoughts — but spare me chain food served on thoughtless trains of thought.

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