Here is my prediction. People who voted for Trump in 2016, will vote for him again. People who voted for Clinton in 2016, will vote for Biden. These 2016 voters will turn out to vote again.
The people who did NOT vote in 2016 will decide the 2020 election. I'm NOT talking about newly registered or first time voters. I am talking about people who were registered to vote in 2016 and did NOT vote. How these people "feel" about Trump today will decide this election.
As of 10/14/2020, the number of early turn out voters is huge ! Predictions of a historic voter turn out, now seem certain.
In 2016, Trump really turned Republicans on - and they went to the polls to vote for him. The 2016 Republican turn out was huge. These voters will vote for Trump again this year. The Trump affect among Republicans was so strong in 2016, those Republicans who did not vote at all in 2016, are likely NOT to vote in 2020. These Republicans are more all talk but no walk kind of folks.
Republicans tend to vote more regularly than Democrats, so the size of Trump's conservative base will be the same as it was in 2016. Moreover Trump pandered to his base so hard, he alienated people outside his base.
However, in 2016, some liberals were so pissed off at the Democratic Party, they voted for Trump. That will not happen again. This year, Trump will lose the protest vote.
In 2016, Clinton, and the Democratic Party itself, really turned Democrats off - and a lot of them stayed home. This year, these voters are going to the polls.
There now, I have given you the basis of my prediction. Donald Trump's election in 2016, was decided by people who did NOT vote. This year, these same people will decide the election in the voting booth rather than outside it. The vast majority of those 2016 people were not Trump supporters.
Trump's base is contained inside the electoral college winning boundaries, so he could easily win the electoral college again this year. However, Trump has very few supporters outside the electoral college boundaries. As a result, he will lose the popular vote much worse than he lost it in 2016. Moreover, he will lose it nationwide.
We've already experienced what happens when the Republican minority gained power without the popular vote.
Knowing they are even more outnumbered than they thought, will terrify Republicans, especially the police. They will be much more punitive and much more violent in the future.
No matter how I slice and dice it, the only peaceful way out, is Biden winning both the electoral college and the popular vote. I honestly do not believe that will happen.
